Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
